Construction of dynamic stochastic simulation models using knowledge-based techniques

Over the past three decades, computer-based simulation models have proven themselves to be cost-effective alternatives to the more structured deterministic methods of systems analysis. During this time, many techniques, tools and languages for constructing computer-based simulation models have been developed. More recently, advances in knowledge-based system technology have led many researchers to note the similarities between knowledge-based programming and simulation technologies and to investigate the potential application of knowledge-based programming techniques to simulation modeling. The integration of conventional simulation techniques with knowledge-based programming techniques is discussed to provide a development environment for constructing knowledge-based simulation models. A comparison of the techniques used in the construction of dynamic stochastic simulation models and those used in the construction of knowledge-based systems provides the requirements for the environment. This leads to the design and implementation of a knowledge-based simulation development environment. These techniques were used in the construction of several knowledge-based simulation models including the Advanced Launch System Model (ALSYM)

Parasitism of \u3ci\u3ePlathypena Scabra\u3c/i\u3e (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) by \u3ci\u3eSinophorus Teratis\u3c/i\u3e (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae)

(excerpt) A study was conducted at the Ecology Research Center, Miami University, Butler County, Ohio, during the summer of 1990 to examine the effects of strip intercropping sorghum and soybean on the occurrence of parasitoids and incidence of disease in larvae ofthe green cloverworm, Plathypena scabra (F.) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), a sporadic pest of soybeans. The details of the experimental design and results are reported elsewhere (Williams et al. 1995)

Barriers and solutions to addressing tobacco dependence in addiction treatment programs.

Despite the high prevalence of tobacco use among people with substance use disorders, tobacco dependence is often overlooked in addiction treatment programs. Several studies and a meta-analytic review have concluded that patients who receive tobacco dependence treatment during addiction treatment have better overall substance abuse treatment outcomes compared with those who do not. Barriers that contribute to the lack of attention given to this important problem include staff attitudes about and use of tobacco, lack of adequate staff training to address tobacco use, unfounded fears among treatment staff and administration regarding tobacco policies, and limited tobacco dependence treatment resources. Specific clinical-, program-, and system-level changes are recommended to fully address the problem of tobacco use among alcohol and other drug abuse patients

Linear models for control of cavity flow oscillations

Models for understanding and controlling oscillations in the flow past a rectangular cavity are developed. These models may be used to guide control designs, to understand performance limits of feedback, and to interpret experimental results. Traditionally, cavity oscillations are assumed to be self-sustained: no external disturbances are necessary to maintain the oscillations, and amplitudes are limited by nonlinearities. We present experimental data which suggests that in some regimes, the oscillations may not be self-sustained, but lightly damped: oscillations are sustained by external forcing, such as boundary-layer turbulence. In these regimes, linear models suffice to describe the behaviour, and the final amplitude of oscillations depends on the characteristics of the external disturbances. These linear models are particularly appropriate for describing cavities in which feedback has been used for noise suppression, as the oscillations are small and nonlinearities are less likely to be important. It is shown that increasing the gain too much in such feedback control experiments can lead to a peak-splitting phenomenon, which is explained by the linear models. Fundamental performance limits indicate that peak splitting is likely to occur for narrow-bandwidth actuators and controllers

Structural Dynamics Testing of Advanced Stirling Convertor Components

NASA Glenn Research Center has been supporting the development of Stirling energy conversion for use in space. Lockheed Martin has been contracted by the Department of Energy to design and fabricate flight-unit Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generators, which utilize Sunpower, Inc., free-piston Advanced Stirling Convertors. The engineering unit generator has demonstrated conversion efficiency in excess of 20 percent, offering a significant improvement over existing radioisotope-fueled power systems. NASA Glenn has been supporting the development of this generator by developing the convertors through a technology development contract with Sunpower, and conducting research and experiments in a multitude of areas, such as high-temperature material properties, organics testing, and convertor-level extended operation. Since the generator must undergo launch, several launch simulation tests have also been performed at the convertor level. The standard test sequence for launch vibration exposure has consisted of workmanship and flight acceptance levels. Together, these exposures simulate what a flight convertor will experience. Recently, two supplementary tests were added to the launch vibration simulation activity. First was a vibration durability test of the convertor, intended to quantify the effect of vibration levels up to qualification level in both the lateral and axial directions. Second was qualification-level vibration of several heater heads with small oxide inclusions in the material. The goal of this test was to ascertain the effect of the inclusions on launch survivability to determine if the heater heads were suitable for flight

Analysis and Prediction of Telephone Demand in Local Geographic Areas

An approach to forecasting the demand or local area telephone service is presented in this paper. The specific problem discussed is the fore­ casting of main stations in three Michigan metropolitan areas. Several different statistical models are used. The first class of models introduced uses adaptive exponential smoothing and is based solely on the past history of the time series involved. Although appropriate data at the local area level are very difficult to obtain, two exogenous time series related to household formations are used to construct more elaborate models for one of the areas. The various models are evaluated by both the average absolute and the root-mean-square forecast error. In terms of these criteria, the first class of models referred to above performs reasonably well while the second set does considerably better. This argues strongly that future improvements in forecasting accuracy will be made by the more extensive involvement of exogenous variables

Deep anterior lamellar keratoplasty versus penetrating keratoplasty for treating keratoconus

Published version made available following 12 month embargo from date of publication (22 July 2014) in accordance with publisher copyright policy.BACKGROUND: Keratoconus is an ectatic (weakening) disease of the cornea, which is the clear surface at the front of the eye. Approximately 10% to 15% of patients diagnosed with keratoconus require corneal transplantation. This may be full-thickness (penetrating) or partial-thickness (lamellar). OBJECTIVES: To compare visual outcomes after deep anterior lamellar keratoplasty (DALK) and penetrating keratoplasty for keratoconus, and to compare additional outcomes relating to factors which may contribute to poor visual outcomes (e.g. astigmatism, graft rejection and failure). SEARCH METHODS: We searched a number of electronic databases including CENTRAL, PubMed and EMBASE without using any date or language restrictions. We last searched the electronic databases on 31 October 2013. We also handsearched the proceedings of several international ophthalmic conferences. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included all randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing the outcomes of DALK and penetrating keratoplasty in the treatment of keratoconus. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors assessed trial quality and extracted data independently. For dichotomous data (graft failure, rejection, achievement of functional vision) results were expressed as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). For continuous data (postoperative best corrected visual acuity (BCVA), uncorrected visual acuity (UCVA), keratometric astigmatism and spherical equivalent) results were expressed as mean differences (MDs) and 95% CIs. MAIN RESULTS: We identified two completed studies, with a total of 111 participants (n = 30 and n = 81), both conducted in Iran, that met our inclusion criteria. Participants had moderate to severe keratoconus pre-operatively and were randomly allocated to receive either DALK or penetrating keratoplasty. Only one eye of each participant was treated as part of the trials. The smaller study had 12 month follow-up data for all participants. For the larger study, four DALK surgeries had to be abandoned due to technical failure and visual and refractive outcomes were not measured in these participants. Follow-up length for the remaining 77 participants ranged from 6.8 to 36.4 months, with all 77 followed for at least three months post-suture removal. Details of the randomisation procedure were unavailable for the smaller study and so sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine if the results from this study had affected the overall results of the review.Neither of the included studies reported a difference between groups on any of the measures of post-graft visual achievement, keratometric astigmatism or spherical equivalent. A single case of graft failure in a penetrating keratoplasty was reported. No postoperative graft failures were reported in the DALK group of either study.Instances of graft rejection were reported in both groups, in both studies. The majority of these cases were successfully treated with steroids. The data, which related to all cases in each study - given that the four cases that did not go ahead as planned had already technically failed without presence of rejection - showed that rejection was less likely to occur in DALK (odds ratio (OR): 0.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.14 to 0.81, GRADE rating: moderate).Results of the sensitivity analysis indicated that inclusion of the Razmju 2011 study did not bias the results with regards to rejection episodes. While sensitivity analysis showed altered results with regards to failure rates, the data available from the Javadi 2010 study alone had a very wide 95% CI, suggesting an imprecise estimate. Therefore, even after removal of the Razmju 2011 data, it is still difficult to draw conclusions regarding superiority of one technique over another with regards to graft failure.DALK was unable to be completed as planned in four cases and in a further three cases, complications during dissection required further intervention. Other adverse events, of varying severity, were reported in both intervention groups with similar frequency. For both types of surgery, these included postoperative astigmatism, steroid induced ocular hypertension and persistent epithelial defects. In recipients of DALK, one participant had interface neovascularisation (a proliferation of blood vessels where the host and donor cornea come together) and one had wrinkling of Descemet's membrane, the basement membrane separating the corneal stroma from the corneal endothelium. In the penetrating keratoplasty groups, one participant required graft resuturing and one had an atonic pupil, a condition in which the pupil dilates and is non-reactive.Overall, the quality of the evidence was rated as very low to moderate, with methodological limitations, incomplete data analysis and imprecision of findings, as well as high risk of bias in several areas for both studies. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence to support a difference in outcomes with regards to BCVA at three months post-graft or at any of the other time points analysed (GRADE rating: very low). We also found no evidence of a difference in outcomes with regards to graft survival, final UCVA or keratometric outcomes. We found some evidence that rejection is more likely to occur following penetrating keratoplasty than DALK (GRADE rating: moderate). The small number of studies included in the review and methodological issues relating to the two, mean that the overall quality of the evidence in this review is low. There is currently insufficient evidence to determine which technique may offer better overall outcomes - final visual acuity and time to attain this, keratometric stabilisation, risk of rejection or failure, or both, and risk of other adverse events - for patients with keratoconus. Large randomised trials comparing the outcomes of penetrating keratoplasty and DALK in the treatment of keratoconus are needed

Intertrial unconditioned stimuli differentially impact trace conditioning

Three experiments assessed how appetitive conditioning in rats changes over the duration of a trace conditioned stimulus (CS) when unsignaled unconditioned stimuli (USs) are introduced into the intertrial interval. In Experiment 1, a target US occurred at a fixed time either shortly before (embedded), shortly after (trace), or at the same time (delay) as the offset of a 120-s CS. During the CS, responding was most suppressed by intertrial USs in the trace group, less so in the delay group, and least in the embedded group. Unreinforced probe trials revealed a bell-shaped curve centered on the normal US arrival time during the trace interval, suggesting that temporally-specific learning occurred both with and without intertrial USs. Experiments 2a and 2b confirmed that the bulk of the trace CS became inhibitory when intertrial USs were scheduled, as measured by summation and retardation tests, even though CS offset evoked a temporally precise conditioned response. Thus, an inhibitory CS may give rise to new stimuli specifically linked to its termination, which were excitatory. A modification to the micostimulus temporal difference model is offered to account for the data